to subvert the dominant paradigm....... That's what I've been thinking about these days. It's what we need to do or else the past 29 weeks will have been for naught. We won't have learned much of anything if we don't recognize that this is clearly what is needed. Other posters, cee-gee, warnwood and lead-tag for instance, have noted that  in some ways things are starting to settle down; there is more gas available and it is somewhat cheaper than it was at it's highest point a few weeks ago. There is more food out there too and prices have stabilized some. Those who can afford it can avail themselves of it and those who can't- where have they gone anyway?  They have joined the invisible masses I suppose-nobody is counting their thoughts in public opinion polls...... who can find them to even ask?

This is the pattern though that "Peakers", "Doomers" and the like have warned us about- peak oil won't be about hitting a sharp peak and it all goes down from there. It's more about drops and plateaus- the supply drops, panic ensues, demand destruction sets in and then it plateaus- for a while. Those missing masses? They're a part of "demand destruction" by the way. As we learn to make do with less than we had, there is less demand and so the supply stabilizes for a time. Then as either demand increases or the supply weakens, another price spike occurs and supply is lower still. And so it goes.

But what have we learned from this? Are we going to content ourselves with just riding the roller coaster of supply and demand? Is that the life we want for our kids? Sort of like in Russia years ago- if there was a line you got on it- something was for sale- it didn't matter what it was-you bought it because you could. So now we'll just spend our lives topping off the tank when we can and stocking up on canned goods when prices fall? Or do we try to do something different?

I read a good blog this week posted by Jim Kunstler- written in his usual profane style(this is a family site so I'll refrain from quoting him here but you can find it on line). He talks about how so many of the enviro/eco people seem to be addicted (still) to the notion that we will just find something else to replace oil;-hydrogen and fuel cells, biodiesel from algae, switchgrass, whatever- somehow it will happen and we will all be able to continue on as usual. Every time there is a serious discussion such as this all sorts of posters frantically lob comments back about how any day now this or that electric car is coming on line and yes it costs $100,000 now but in a few years it just might only cost say $60,000 or so- downright affordable wouldn't you say and so on....

We WILL be able to continue on as usual-Mom ferrying the kids to soccer, Dad commuting 50 miles each way to work, and they'll still be able to take their eco-tours of Costa Rica and Nepal.....And when Kunstler points out that not only isn't this going to happen in terms of the reality of the resources needed to make it happen- alternative fuels, trace metals, etc, and that in terms of the impacts that our lifestyle has created on the planet it would be best if it DIDN'T happen, boy does the fur fly.......... People accuse him of wanting collapse. And yes, in some ways that is true- he does want to see the dissolution of what we have created by our dependence on fossil fuels- endless highways, suburbia, shipping of lettuce from CA to NY and raspberries from Guatemala in February. But he is also trying to hammer home the idea that this way of life doesn't work- it is destructive and damaging, both to our ecosystem and to our souls. We need to do something different.

But this is where it all breaks down as it seems that most people can't or won't consider something different. Even if they're not happy- and our rate of anti-depressant use as well as the self-medicating of the masses by alcohol, street drugs and mindless entertainment would seem to imply that most are not, the majority of people will fight to the death it seems to keep the status quo. They are afraid of change and hold on as tight as they can till their fingers are bloodless from the grip. But why is this? Why are we so afraid to confront the possibility that what we have constructed as our way of life wasn't such a good idea and it needs to be different? Why hold on to something that doesn't work? Oh yes, I know that some would say it has worked well for them, but the billions who are not even having their most basic needs met would say otherwise. And even those who are fed and housed but are otherwise deeply unhappy- how is this meeting their needs?

 I do believe that we will see the arrival of electric cars that get great mileage- they will cost more than most people can possibly afford and will be available only to the most affluent. As well there isn't any way we can run a nation of these powered by our electric grid anyway. And other products will be developed as well that are available to only the better-off, leaving the majority of the world unable to utilize them. So what of the rest of us? Are we consigned to slip into the stone age, trudging along the road with our oxen? It seems that many people only have two lines of thought about how our civilization can be structured- either business as usual("happy motoring" as Kunstler would say), or a return to the middle-ages. Why is this? Why do we lack the imagination to create something else? Why does it have to be so polarized?

I think that one of the problems is what do we do with the structure we have built? In farming a recurrent problem is that Dad built a big barn, silos, etc and so the children feel compelled to use it as Dad did- it's a tie-stall cow barn so of course we'll raise cows and do it this way. Having that structure seems to create the inability to free themselves in their minds- to consider that while they do want to farm, they would really rather raise chickens or grow strawberries. A tie-stall cow barn and silo is useless for that and so they continue to raise cows even if it isn't working for them and they're losing their shirt and their sanity. Sometimes a good lightening strike and fire would be a blessing- no more barn-hey we could do something different!

So maybe this is part of our inability to think outside the box? We've got all these structures-highways, houses, big-box stores, airports, industrial complexes- we built them, they cost money, we have to use them, so we just need to find a way to power them? And we've created our employment around these structures and our financial markets and  globalization. So how do we get out of this box?

Tags: world without oil
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